Climate & sustainability

On ERA5 reanalysis data country-average monthly rainfall in 1991–2020 was highest in April (197 mm) and October (182 mm) and lowest in January and February, which marks two rainy seasons in March–May and September–November (own calculation)¹. Station-based CRU data give an annual average of 1,286 mm in 1991–2020, and 2019 and 2020 were the wettest years of the period, with 1,599 mm and 1,473 mm². On the same data the September–November season of 2016 brought 346 mm against an average of 483 mm, the driest of 1991–2025, and both seasons were below average in 2021 and 2022¹. The agricultural adaptation plan of 2018 cites losses of US$1.2 billion, about 7.5% of GDP, from the rainfall deficits of 2010–2011 and an average of 800,000 hectares of crops destroyed each year by climate-related events³.

Heavy rain also causes floods and landslides. Landslides in Bulambuli District on 27 November 2024 left 15 people dead and 125 missing in the first Red Cross field report⁴. FAO recorded 11,140 hectares equipped for irrigation in 2012, 0.1% of cropland, and the NDC uses a baseline of 19,776 hectares under irrigation with a target of 152,622 hectares by 2030⁵⁶⁷.

The country-average temperature was 23.22 °C in 1991–2020, against 22.50 °C in 1961–1990, on CRU data (own calculation)². In the ERA5 series 2024 was the warmest year since 1950, at 24.15 °C¹⁰. CMIP6 models project median warming of 1.22 °C by 2040–2059 under an intermediate scenario and 1.68 °C under high emissions, rising to 2.10 °C and 3.79 °C by 2080–2099, relative to 1995–2014^1181213. Median rainfall projections rise, but the model range includes drier outcomes¹¹.

On Climate Watch data agriculture emitted 30.77 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent in 2023, 58.1% of the 52.92 million tonnes emitted excluding land use and forestry (own calculation), and land use and forestry added 11.34 million tonnes⁹. Enteric fermentation of livestock accounted for 18.16 million tonnes and manure left on pasture for 8.49 million tonnes, while synthetic fertilisers accounted for 64,000 tonnes¹⁴. The national inventory in the second Biennial Update Report of August 2025 gives total emissions of 112,137 Gg CO2-equivalent in 2019, of which 76% from agriculture, forestry and other land use¹⁵. Forest land declined from 4.55 million hectares in 1990 to 2.37 million hectares in 2025 on FAO data⁶.

The updated NDC submitted in September 2022 sets a target of 24.7% below business as usual by 2030, of which 5.9 percentage points unconditional, and costs implementation at US$28.1 billion, of which US$4.1 billion from domestic sources⁷. Its agricultural measures include climate-smart agriculture, irrigation and climate-smart dairy, and it targets 70.7% of farmers practising sustainable land management by 2030⁷. Uganda had not submitted an NDC 3.0 by October 2026¹⁶¹⁷. Adaptation planning is sectoral, with an agricultural plan of 2018 and a water, sanitation and hygiene plan for 2026–2030, and no all-sector national adaptation plan was found³¹⁸. By the time of the FY2026/27 Ministerial Policy Statement the Ministry of Water and Environment reported 5,226 hectares of agroforestry established and 15,000 hectares of degraded wetlands restored¹⁹. The National Climate Change Act of 2021 gives the Paris Agreement the force of law, and regulations on carbon market mechanisms were published in January 2025²⁰²¹.