Climate & sustainability

On ERA5 data annual rainfall averaged 1,124 mm in 1991–2020 against 1,209 mm in 1961–1990, and 2025, at 873 mm, was the driest since 1983 in the ERA5 series (own calculations)². Rainfall in March–July was 19% below its 1991–2020 average in 2021 and 2024 and 25% below in 2025, and June–August rainfall was 18% below average in 2024 (own calculations)³. These are national averages, and the National Adaptation Plan notes that droughts and dry spells have their strongest impacts in the northern and interior agricultural zones⁴.

The World Bank describes a severe drought in rice and maize areas in June–August 2024, and at the Government's request it activated the emergency component of the Food Systems Resilience Program on 11 November 2024 with US$85 million of fertiliser and seed for 500,000 smallholders⁵. MoFA estimated, as quoted by the World Bank, that without intervention the drought would have caused a loss of US$673.0 million, assuming a 50% loss of acreage⁵. In late 2023 the controlled spillage of the Akosombo and Kpong dams flooded farms, and the programme supplied US$40 million of inputs to 155,000 farmers, including 20,000 affected by the floods⁵.

The country-average temperature was 27.36 °C in 1991–2020 against 26.67 °C in 1961–1990 on ERA5 data, and 2024 was the warmest year in the series at 28.28 °C². CMIP6 models project median warming of 1.22 °C by 2040–2059 under an intermediate scenario and 1.74 °C under high emissions, rising to 2.09 °C and 3.98 °C by 2080–2099, relative to 1995–2014⁶. Median projections show slightly more annual rainfall, but the 10th–90th percentile range includes both drier and wetter outcomes⁶.

On Climate Watch data agriculture emitted 11.28 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent in 2023, 26.2% of the 43.08 million tonnes emitted excluding land use and forestry (own calculation)⁷. Enteric fermentation (4.32 Mt), manure left on pasture (2.49 Mt) and savanna fires (2.32 Mt) were the three largest sources in FAO's estimate for 2023⁹. Forest covered 30.9% of the land area in 2024 on WDI data, while the national forest reference level cited by the World Bank shows a loss of 17% of forest land in 2001–2019¹⁰¹¹. The World Bank also reports increased deforestation in the cocoa forest programme area in 2023 due to illegal mining¹².

The National Climate Change Policy of 2013 makes climate-resilient agriculture and food security its first focus area¹³. The updated NDC of 2021 targets 64 MtCO2e of reductions by 2030, 24.6 Mt of them unconditional, in energy, industrial processes, land use and forestry and waste, and excludes agriculture emissions from the targets¹⁴. The National Adaptation Plan of 2025 estimates adaptation costs of US$22.6 billion for 2025–2030, of which US$4.1 billion for agriculture⁴. The Environmental Protection Act, 2025 (Act 1124) provides for climate change responses and a Ghana Carbon Registry¹⁵.