Climate & sustainability

On ERA5 data annual rainfall averaged 1,090.2 mm in 1991–2020, and 2021, at 888.9 mm, was 18.5% below that average (own calculations)¹. June–September rainfall ranged between 8.9% below and 11.7% above its 1991–2020 average in 2010–2025, and August was the wettest month on the 1991–2020 average (own calculations)². In the 2023/24 household panel 1.7% of plots were irrigated³. The ACReSAL project documentation (2021) gives 43% of Nigeria's land as affected by desertification⁴.

In the six states surveyed after the 2022 floods, 64% of households were affected and about 57% reported an adverse impact on their livelihoods and income, 67.9% of affected households lost crops and 94.9% of crop-farming households reported reduced yields⁵. The report quotes over 569,000 hectares of farmland destroyed and a preliminary World Bank estimate of direct damages of US$3.79 billion to US$9.12 billion⁵. The 2026 Annual Flood Outlook classed 14,118 communities in 266 local government areas as at high flood risk⁶.

The country-average temperature was 27.05 °C in 1991–2020 against 26.55 °C in 1961–1990, and 2025 (27.77 °C) and 2024 (27.76 °C) were the two warmest years of 1950–2025 on ERA5 data (own calculations)¹. CMIP6 models project median warming of 1.26 °C by 2040–2059 under an intermediate scenario and 1.58 °C under high emissions, rising to 2.12 °C and 3.99 °C by 2080–2099⁸. NiMet's 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction expected normal annual rainfall in most parts of the country¹⁰.

On Climate Watch data agriculture emitted 84.86 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent in 2023, 27.7% of the 306.85 million tonnes emitted excluding land use (own calculation)⁷. Enteric fermentation, manure left on pasture and rice cultivation accounted for 74.7 million of the 84.9 million tonnes of farm-gate emissions estimated by FAO for 2023 (own sum)¹². Forest covered 18.95% of the land area in 2024, against 20.90% in 2010¹³.

The Climate Change Act 2021 sets a net-zero target between 2050 and 2070 and created the National Council on Climate Change and a Climate Change Fund¹⁴. NDC 3.0 of September 2025 targets reductions of 29% by 2030 and 32% by 2035 against 2018 emissions of 573.5 MtCO2e, with 20% of the reductions unconditional, and estimates needs of US$337 billion for 2026–2035, of which US$141.5 billion for adaptation¹⁵. Agriculture provides 0.4% of the planned reductions, while the NDC's food and agriculture adaptation measures include 1,000,000 hectares of climate-smart agriculture and a 50% cut in pre- and post-harvest losses¹⁵. The National Adaptation Plan was still being completed when NDC 3.0 was submitted¹⁵.