Size and trend of bank lending
Commercial banks' loans to agriculture grew from NGN 128.4 billion at the end of 2010 to NGN 1,049.7 billion at the end of 2020 and NGN 3,608.1 billion at the end of 2025, about US$2.51 billion12. Agriculture's share of sectoral credit rose from 1.67% in 2010 to 6.16% in 2022, fell to 4.82% in 2024 and reached 6.30% in 2025 (own calculations), and the CBN prints 4.8 per cent for December 202413. In June 2026 the stock was NGN 4,156.0 billion, 6.62% of credit (own calculation)4.
In dollars the stock was US$3.94 billion at the end of 2022, US$1.86 billion at the end of 2024 and US$2.51 billion at the end of 2025, a period in which the naira depreciated after the June 2023 unification of the market segments (own conversions)25. The CBN does not publish a non-performing loan ratio for agriculture. For the whole banking system the ratio rose from 4.21% in December 2022 to 5.76% in June 2025, above the regulatory benchmark of 5%36.
| Indicator | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loans to agriculture (NGN billion) | 2,255.4 | 2,854.5 | 3,608.1 | 4,156.0 |
| Total sectoral credit (NGN billion) | 44,536.1 | 59,217.0 | 57,314.4 | 62,785.1 |
| Agriculture share (%, own calculation) | 5.06 | 4.82 | 6.30 | 6.62 |
| Loans to agriculture (US$ million, own conversion) | 2,506.3 | 1,858.6 | 2,513.0 | 3,012.3 |
| NGN per US$, end of period (IMF) | 899.89 | 1,535.82 | 1,435.76 | 1,379.68 |
| Banking system NPL ratio, all sectors (%) | 4.34 | 4.87 | – | – |
Interest rates and the policy framework
The CBN raised the Monetary Policy Rate from 11.5% in March 2022 to 18.75% in July 2023 and, after a 400 basis point rise in February 2024, to 27.50% in November 2024111213. It cut the rate to 27.00% in September 2025 and 26.5% in February 2026, and on 21–22 September 2026 reset it at 23 per cent11. The average prime lending rate was 18.45% and the maximum lending rate 29.73% in 20251. The cash reserve ratio of commercial banks was 50% from September 2024 and 45% from September 202511.
On 14 June 2023 the CBN merged all foreign exchange market segments into the Investors and Exporters window under a willing buyer, willing seller model5. Under the recapitalisation programme of March 2024 commercial banks with international authorisation needed NGN 500 billion of paid-in capital by 31 March 2026. By November 2025, 16 banks had fully complied, and on 1 April 2026 the CBN announced the conclusion of the programme, under which banks raised NGN 4.65 trillion of new capital141516. Lenders can take security over crops, livestock and stored produce under the Secured Transactions in Movable Assets Act 2017 and register it in the National Collateral Registry1718.
| Meeting | Monetary Policy Rate (%) | Corridor (basis points) | Cash reserve ratio, commercial banks (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26–27 Feb 2024 | 22.75 | +100/−700 | 45 |
| 25–26 Mar 2024 | 24.75 | +100/−300 | 45 |
| 20–21 May 2024 | 26.25 | +100/−300 | 45 |
| 22–23 Jul 2024 | 26.75 | +500/−100 | 45 |
| 23–24 Sep 2024 | 27.25 | +500/−100 | 50 |
| 25–26 Nov 2024 | 27.50 | +500/−100 | 50 |
| 19–20 Feb 2025 | 27.50 | +500/−100 | 50 |
| 19–20 May 2025 | 27.50 | +500/−100 | 50 |
| 21–22 Jul 2025 | 27.50 | +500/−100 | 50 |
| 22–23 Sep 2025 | 27.00 | +250/−250 | 45 (75 on non-TSA public deposits) |
| 24–25 Nov 2025 | 27.00 | +50/−450 | 45 |
| 23–24 Feb 2026 | 26.50 | +50/−450 | 45 |
| 19–20 May 2026 | 26.50 | +50/−450 | 45 |
| 20–21 Jul 2026 | 26.50 | +50/−450 | 45 |
| 21–22 Sep 2026 | 23.00 | +50/−300 | 45 |
| Year | Prime lending rate | Maximum lending rate | Monetary Policy Rate, end of year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 12.32 | 28.64 | 11.5 |
| 2021 | 11.48 | 28.06 | 11.5 |
| 2022 | 12.33 | 28.11 | 16.5 |
| 2023 | 14.01 | 27.98 | 18.75 |
| 2024 | 16.29 | 29.20 | 27.5 |
| 2025 | 18.45 | 29.73 | 27 |
| Licence | Minimum capital (NGN billion) |
|---|---|
| Commercial bank, international authorisation | 500 |
| Commercial bank, national | 200 |
| Commercial bank, regional | 50 |
| Merchant bank | 50 |
| Non-interest bank, national | 20 |
| Non-interest bank, regional | 10 |
Central bank interventions and their wind-down
The CBN set up the Anchor Borrowers' Programme under section 31 of the CBN Act to link smallholder farmers with anchor companies, with loans in kind and cash repaid in produce or cash22. Cumulative ABP disbursements reached NGN 1,067.29 billion to over 4.6 million smallholder farmers by October 2022, and the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme had disbursed NGN 745.31 billion for 680 projects23. ABP disbursements were NGN 417.0 billion in 2021 and NGN 139.3 billion in 2022, and the ABP loan balance on the CBN's books was NGN 620.4 billion at the end of 20222425. The interest rate on intervention facilities returned from 5% to 9% a year in 202220.
In November 2023 Governor Cardoso said the CBN would discontinue direct quasi-fiscal interventionist activities, and in March 2024 he handed 2.15 million bags of fertiliser valued at over NGN 100 billion to the agriculture ministry2627. The CBN recorded no ABP or CACS disbursements in July 2024–June 2025, and ABP repayments of NGN 10.39 billion and NGN 6.92 billion in the two half-years6. The ACGSF, which the CBN manages, guaranteed 35,227 loans worth NGN 10.44 billion in 2024, about US$7.06 million at the 2024 average rate (own calculation)282. No official ABP total after October 2022 and no official repayment rate were found.
| Scheme | Figure | Date or period | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anchor Borrowers' Programme | NGN 1,067.29 billion to over 4.6 million smallholder farmers | Cumulative to October 2022 | Disbursements since inception |
| Anchor Borrowers' Programme | NGN 620.4 billion | 31 December 2022 | Gross loan balance on the CBN's books |
| Anchor Borrowers' Programme | No disbursement, repayments NGN 10.39 billion and NGN 6.92 billion | July 2024–June 2025 | Flows by half-year |
| Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme | NGN 745.31 billion for 680 projects | Cumulative to October 2022 | Disbursements since inception |
| Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme | NGN 160.1 billion | 31 December 2022 | Loans to banks on the CBN's books |
| Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund | 35,227 loans, NGN 10.44 billion | 2024 | Loans guaranteed during the year |
| P-AADS | Up to NGN 2 billion per obligor | Guidelines of 2020 | Loan ceiling |
| Interest Drawback Programme claims under the ACGSF | 6,837 claims | 2024 | Claims processed (22,133 in 2022) |
| Fertiliser handed to the agriculture ministry | 2.15 million bags valued at over NGN 100 billion | 13 March 2024 | CBN statement |
Development finance institutions
The Bank of Agriculture, a specialised bank under BOFIA 2020 with 110 branches, is owned by the Federal Government through MOFI and the CBN, which recorded a 14.0% holding at 31 December 2022323325. The 2025 repeal and enactment appropriation bill carries NGN 1.5 trillion for its recapitalisation, whose release was not verified34. NIRSAL Plc, wholly owned by the CBN (CBN accounts, 2022), offers credit risk guarantees of up to 75%2535.
The Development Bank of Nigeria disbursed NGN 359.2 billion in 2025 through participating banks, about US$237 million at the 2025 average rate (own calculation), and NGN 1,416.8 billion since inception362. It states that more than NGN 35 billion went to over 9,000 agribusinesses in 202537. The World Bank approved US$500 million for FINCLUDE through the DBN in December 202538.
Financial inclusion
Account ownership rose from 29.7% of adults in 2011 to 45.3% in 2021 and 63.3% in 2024, and mobile money accounts from 8.7% to 32.8% between 2021 and 2024, while 6.1% of adults borrowed from a formal financial institution in 20247. The 2023 EFInA survey found 64% of adults aged 18 and over formally included and 26% excluded, and among adults living from farming 36% were banked and 30% excluded39. The CBN reports 74% of Nigerians financially included at the end of June 2025 against a target of 95%, on its own definition6. The CBN listed five payment service banks and 790 microfinance banks in October 202640.
| Indicator | Value | Survey and population |
|---|---|---|
| Account ownership (%) | 63.3 | Global Findex, 2024, adults 15+ |
| Account ownership, women (%) | 52.2 | Global Findex, 2024, adults 15+ |
| Mobile money account (%) | 32.8 | Global Findex, 2024, adults 15+ |
| Borrowed from a formal financial institution (%) | 6.1 | Global Findex, 2024, adults 15+ |
| Formally included (%) | 64 | EFInA A2F 2023, adults 18+ |
| Financially excluded (%) | 26 | EFInA A2F 2023, adults 18+ |
| Adults living from farming who are banked (%) | 36 | EFInA A2F 2023, adults 18+ |
| Adults living from farming who are excluded (%) | 30 | EFInA A2F 2023, adults 18+ |
| Financially included Nigerians (%) | 74.00 | CBN, end-June 2025 |
Insurance and risk finance
The Nigerian Agricultural Insurance Corporation, wholly owned through MOFI, wrote NGN 1,228.8 million of gross premiums in 2023, against NGN 3,750.9 million in 2019, and made a loss after tax of NGN 1,192.2 million42. The NAIC Act provides premium subsidies of up to 50% and requires farmers who borrow for agriculture to insure43. The insurance industry wrote NGN 2,301.8 billion of gross premiums in 2025, without a separate agricultural class in the NAICOM statistics44. The Insurance Industry Reform Act 2025 raised minimum capital to NGN 15 billion for non-life insurers45. No market-wide figure for agricultural insurance premiums was found.
| Item | Value | Source note |
|---|---|---|
| NAIC gross premium written, 2023 | NGN 1,228.8 million | Audited accounts |
| NAIC loss after tax, 2023 | NGN 1,192.2 million | Audited accounts |
| Premium subsidy under the NAIC Act | up to 50% (37.5% federal, 12.5% state) | NAIC Act s.9 |
| Cover for farmers with agricultural loans | compulsory | NAIC Act s.13 |
| Insurance industry gross premium, 2025 | NGN 2,301.8 billion | NAICOM, no separate agricultural class |
| ACGSF maximum guarantee | 75% of the loan | ACGSF Act s.6 |
| NIRSAL credit risk guarantee | up to 75% | NIRSAL website |
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For more information and suggestions, please contact serkan.veziroglu@prosperaimpact.com.