Climate & sustainability

Irrigation. The 2023 farm structure survey counted 94,400 ha of irrigable farmland and 75,920 ha actually irrigated, 2.1% and 1.7% of the utilised agricultural area, against 137,510 ha and 90,400 ha in 2010¹. In Eurostat's definitions the irrigable area is the maximum area which could be irrigated in the reference year using the equipment and the quantity of water normally available on the holding, and the irrigated area is the area irrigated at least once in the 12 months before the reference date²³. Irrigation Systems EAD, which owns or manages 181 dams according to the Agrarian Report 2025 and maintained flood-protection works under a contract with the Ministry of Agriculture and Food in 2024, watered 342,614 decares (34,261 ha) in 2024 with 311.6 million m³ of water, 11% more area than in 2023. Rice accounted for 115,219 decares and 273.8 million m³ of that water⁴. The watered area rose from 23,621 ha in 2018 (own conversion from decares)⁵. Irrigation Systems EAD completed construction works on all 24 sites approved under sub-measure 4.3 of the 2014–2020 rural development programme, and the CAP Strategic Plan 2023–2027 allocates EUR 100 million of public funds to investment in irrigation infrastructure⁴. Eurostat estimates freshwater abstraction for irrigation at 665 million m³ in 2024⁶.

Drought and frost. In the summer of 2024 heat of up to 40 °C and a deficit of soil moisture affected maize and sunflower, and part of the late maize was harvested for silage⁴. The European Commission set aside up to EUR 10.9 million of EU emergency aid for Bulgarian farmers after the 2024 drought and fires, up to EUR 7.4 million after the spring frosts of 2025 and up to EUR 7.4 million after the drought and heatwaves of June–August 2025⁷⁸⁹. Grain maize yields fell from 7.92 t/ha in 2018 to 3.25 t/ha in 2024 and 2.50 t/ha in 2025, and sunflower yields to 1.70 t/ha in 2025¹⁰. The national scheme for crop damage from adverse climatic events, which pays up to 80% of average production costs, paid BGN 21.62 million (about US$12.0 million at the 2023 average rate, own calculation) to 786 farmers in 2023 and BGN 8.38 million to 599 farmers in 2024 (own sum of three calls)¹¹⁴¹².

Hail. In 2024 the Executive Agency Hail Suppression protected almost 22 million decares with rockets in nine provinces and a further 30 million decares with aircraft seeding⁴¹³. It carried out 255 rocket interventions on 63 days in 2024 using 14,349 rockets. Hail damaged 10,367 ha in the rocket-protected area, and the agency estimated the value of production saved at BGN 128.3 million (about US$71.0 million at the 2024 average rate, own calculation)⁴¹².

Bulgaria's First Biennial Transparency Report puts the rise in average annual temperature between 1961–1990 and 1991–2020 at 0.8 °C, with summer temperatures up by 1.5 °C and the largest warming in North Bulgaria¹⁷. On the ERA5 reanalysis the country average was 10.60 °C in 1961–1990 and 11.44 °C in 1991–2020 (own calculation), and 2024 was the warmest year since 1950 at 13.26 °C¹⁸. NIMH researchers presented 2024 as the warmest year for Bulgaria so far¹⁹. The report finds no significant change in national annual precipitation, but precipitation fell by up to 30% in the high mountains and rose by up to 40% in North-East Bulgaria, with more heavy rainfall¹⁷¹⁹. In the dry years 2019 and 2020 total river runoff was 36.1% and 45.2% below the 1961–1990 norm, and NIMH has assessed the effect of the hydrological drought of 2023–2025 on groundwater¹⁷¹⁹.

CMIP6 models project median warming of 1.65 °C by 2040–2059 under an intermediate scenario and 2.40 °C under high emissions, rising to 2.86 °C and 5.26 °C by 2080–2099, relative to 1995–2014^20212223. Median annual precipitation is projected to fall in every scenario, by 133 mm by 2080–2099 under high emissions, and the number of days above 35 °C rises by 41 a year²³²⁴. The Transparency Report lists lower crop yields, more pests, heat stress in livestock, erosion and aridity, and water shortages for irrigation among the main risks for agriculture¹⁷.

Bulgaria emitted 43.38 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent in 2024, excluding land use and forestry, 56.7% less than in 1990 (own calculation)²⁸. Agriculture emitted 5.83 million tonnes, 13.46% of the total, and 60.84% less than in the inventory base year 1988²⁹. Farm emissions in 2024 were 12.6% above 2005. Over the same period nitrous oxide from agricultural soils rose by 55.6% and methane from livestock digestion fell by 25.3% (own calculations)²⁸. Nitrous oxide made up 61% of farm emissions in 2024 and methane 38%²⁹. Land use and forestry removed a net 7.94 million tonnes in 2024, against 16.32 million tonnes in 1990²⁸. Forest covered 3.96 million ha in 2025, up from 3.33 million ha in 1990, and 35.2% of the land area in 2023 (provisional)³⁰³¹.

The Climate Change Mitigation Act, promulgated in State Gazette No. 22 of 11 March 2014 and in force the same day, is the legal basis for climate policy, and an amendment in State Gazette No. 81 of 3 October 2025 added a national target of climate neutrality by 2050³². Under the Effort Sharing Regulation, as amended in April 2023, Bulgaria must cut emissions from agriculture, transport, buildings, small industry and waste by 10% by 2030 against 2005³³¹⁷. In 2023 these emissions were 4.9% above 2005 by the Commission's approximate estimate, and the final updated national energy and climate plan, submitted on 14 January 2025, projects a cut of 11.06%³⁴. The Commission found that the plan gives insufficient detail on agriculture and that projected land-sector removals fall 1.45 million tonnes short of the 2030 target³⁴³⁵. The National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan to 2030 was adopted by Council of Ministers Decision No. 621 of 25 October 2019³⁶.

In the 2020–2023 reporting period under the Nitrates Directive, 68.5% of Bulgaria's utilised agricultural area lay within nitrate vulnerable zones, close to the EU-27 share of 68.7%³⁸. The gross nitrogen balance was a surplus of 44.0 kg per hectare in 2023³⁹, and average nitrate concentrations in groundwater rose from 23.8 mg/l in 2007 to 29.2 mg/l in 2023⁴⁰. On the Joint Research Centre's model estimates, 20.29% of agricultural land excluding pastures lost more than 5 tonnes of soil per hectare a year to water erosion in 2016, down from 26.77% in 2000⁴¹. In a study of 1981–2010 cited in the Transparency Report, North-East Bulgaria, including Dobrudzha, was the area most affected by the drought criterion for natural constraints¹⁷.