Climate & sustainability

ERA5 reanalysis data show 867.8 mm of rain between October 2023 and April 2024, 19.8% below the 1991–2020 seasonal average of 1,081.3 mm, with about half the usual rainfall in February 2024². The 2004/05 and 2018/19 seasons were also dry². NDC 3.0 states that the 2023/24 drought affected more than 9.8 million people and cost the government an estimated US$3.5 billion³.

The drought also affected the power supply, which matters for irrigation and agro-processing. Usable storage in Lake Kariba fell to 6.79% on 27 September 2024, and national generation fell from 19,373 GWh in 2023 to 13,324 GWh in 2024, with load-shedding of up to 20 hours a day⁴⁵. Storage had recovered to 38.71% by 1 October 2026⁶.

The country-average temperature was 22.17 °C in 1991–2020, against 21.53 °C in 1961–1990, on CRU station data¹². In the ERA5 series 2024 was the warmest year since 2000, at 22.79 °C⁸. CMIP6 models project median warming of 1.44 °C by 2040–2059 under an intermediate scenario and 1.85 °C under high emissions, rising to 2.47 °C and 4.62 °C by 2080–2099, relative to 1995–2014^1371415. Median rainfall projections show small declines, but the model range includes both wetter and drier outcomes¹⁵.

Irrigation covered a small part of the irrigable land at the dates of the latest figures. FAO still reports 155,890 hectares equipped for irrigation from a 2002 survey, and in 2015 the Minister of Agriculture reported 425,000 hectares under irrigation out of 2.75 million hectares of irrigable land¹⁶¹⁷. The World Bank approved US$108 million for irrigated agriculture in July 2026¹⁸.

On Climate Watch data agriculture emitted 23.9 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent in 2023, about half of the 47.8 million tonnes emitted excluding land use and forestry, and land use and forestry added 39.3 million tonnes, so that the two together accounted for 72.5% of total emissions including land use (own calculation)¹. Savanna fires and enteric fermentation are the largest farm sources, and emissions from synthetic fertiliser tripled from 428,000 tonnes in 2010 to 1.28 million tonnes in 2023²⁷. The national inventory in Zambia's first Biennial Transparency Report reports gross emissions of 220,462 Gg CO2-equivalent in 2022, of which 202,052 Gg from agriculture, forestry and other land use, and net emissions of 60,019 Gg after removals by forests²⁸. Forest land declined from 46.7 million hectares in 2010 to 44.9 million in 2025 on FAO data, and NDC 3.0 cites deforestation of 276,021 hectares a year²⁹³.

Zambia's NDC 3.0 of October 2025 sets an unconditional target of a 25% reduction below business as usual by 2030 and up to 47% with international support³. For agriculture it envisages solar-powered irrigation on 150,000 hectares, halving post-harvest losses and insurance cover for 120,000 hectares of smallholder production³. The 2021 NDC estimated support needs of US$15 billion to US$35 billion³⁰. The National Adaptation Plan of October 2023 lists drought-tolerant crops, irrigation and agricultural insurance among its measures but does not include a cost estimate in its main text³¹.