Climate & sustainability

On ERA5 data annual rainfall averaged 701 mm in 1991–2020, and 2022, at 423 mm, was the driest year since 2000¹. Each of the five rainy seasons from October–December 2020 to October–December 2022 fell short of its 1991–2020 average, by 18% to 54%, and the short rains of 2022 were 53.8% below average (own calculations)². The long and short rains of 2023 were above average².

The second NDC estimates that the 2022 drought caused economic losses of more than KES 70 billion, about USD 650 million, and pushed an estimated 300,000 people into poverty, and that the 2024 floods caused direct losses of over USD 1.46 billion³. The National Drought Management Authority classifies the 23 arid and semi-arid counties by drought phase, and in April 2026 Mandera and Wajir were in the alarm phase and seven counties in the alert phase⁴.

The country-average temperature was 25.29 °C in 1991–2020 against 24.50 °C in 1961–1990 on ERA5 data, and 2024 was the warmest year since 2000 at 26.09 °C¹. CMIP6 models project median warming of 1.23 °C by 2040–2059 under an intermediate scenario and 1.56 °C under high emissions, rising to 2.05 °C and 3.68 °C by 2080–2099, relative to 1995–2014⁷⁵⁸⁹. Median projections show more annual rainfall⁹.

On Climate Watch data agriculture emitted 53.3 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent in 2023, 60.4% of the 88.4 million tonnes emitted excluding land use and forestry (own calculation), while land use and forestry removed a net 15.7 million tonnes⁶. Enteric fermentation and manure left on pasture accounted for 49.8 million of the 53.3 million tonnes of agricultural emissions estimated by FAO for 2023¹¹. Forest covered 6.6% of the land area in 2024¹².

The Climate Change Act of 2016 established the Climate Change Council, Directorate and Fund, and the 2023 amendment added a framework for carbon markets¹³¹⁴. Kenya's updated first NDC of December 2020 committed to a 32% reduction below business as usual by 2030¹⁵. The second NDC of 2025 targets a 35% reduction below business as usual by 2035, at an estimated cost of USD 56 billion for 2031–2035³. The Kenya Climate Smart Agriculture Strategy 2017–2026 and the National Adaptation Plan 2015–2030 set out adaptation measures for farming¹⁶¹⁷.