Climate & sustainability

Mongolia's national transparency report records warming of 2.52 °C since 1940¹. The CRU gridded series shows an average of −0.10 °C over 1961–1990 and 1.77 °C over 2015–2024, with 2007 the warmest year at 2.69 °C (own calculation)². The NDC 3.0 reports that winters have warmed by 3.2 °C and summers by 1.6 °C between 1940 and 2022³. Compared with 1995–2014, the CMIP6 multi-model median projects warming of 2.05 °C by 2040–2059 and 3.10 °C by 2080–2099 under an intermediate emissions scenario, and 5.89 °C by 2080–2099 under a very high one⁴. Precipitation shows no clear trend. Annual rainfall averaged 231.8 mm in 1961–1990 and 240.2 mm in 2015–2024 (own calculation)².

Dzud is a major climate risk for herders. In 2009/10 up to 8.4 million animals died by May 2010, 770,000 herders were affected and 43,500 herders lost all their animals, according to the Red Cross⁷. NSO recorded 10.3 million adult losses in 2010, 23.4% of the herd (own calculation)⁵. The 2023/24 dzud was the next most severe. The agriculture ministry counted 8.1 million animals dead by July 2024, 12.5% of the herd, and nearly 5,000 herder households lost more than 70% of their animals⁸. NSO recorded 9.4 million adult losses for 2024 as a whole⁵. The losses of 2010 and 2024 are the two highest annual values in the NSO series, which starts in 1991⁹. Smaller dzuds occurred in 2015/16, 2019/20 and 2022/23¹⁰¹¹¹². A climate-risk report of the Bank of Mongolia and the World Bank cites a projection of dzuds every three years by mid-century¹³.

Grazing pressure has increased with the herd. The rangeland health reports put livestock at 85.5 million sheep units in 2014 and 110.8 million in 2018¹⁴¹⁵. The first National Report on Rangeland Health found 65% of 1,450 monitoring sites altered from their reference condition in 2014, and the second found 57% of 1,516 sites altered in 2016, 10.3% of all sites fully degraded, and 79% of all sites recoverable within ten years¹⁴¹⁵. The NDC 3.0 cites a 2020 assessment finding nearly 70% of pasture deteriorated to some degree³. The land agency's photo monitoring of 130.5 million ha found 15.1% of rangeland strongly or very strongly degraded in 2025, against 20.5% in 2020 (own calculation from classes IV and V)⁶. These assessments use different methods and do not form a time series. No official national estimate of carrying capacity against actual stocking was found.

Agriculture used 337.5 million m³ in 2023, about 53% of water extracted excluding hydropower (own calculation)¹⁶. Only about 59,500 ha were actually irrigated in 2024¹⁷.

Mongolia emitted 48.5 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent in 2022, excluding land use, twice the 1990 level¹. Agriculture produced 26.8 million tonnes, 55.2% of the total, and enteric fermentation by livestock 70% of agricultural emissions¹. Cattle produced the largest share of this methane, followed by sheep and goats¹. Total emissions in 2022 were 7.6% below the business-as-usual path of the NDC¹.

The updated NDC of 2020 set a reduction of 22.7% against business-as-usual by 2030, with livestock and manure measures expected to contribute 5.28 million tonnes¹⁹. The NDC 3.0, approved by Government Resolution No. 91 of September 2025, targets 30.3% by 2035, or 46.3% including the forest sink, and puts financing needs at US$14.84 billion³²⁰. Its adaptation targets for animal husbandry include financial mechanisms for sustainable pasture management and long-term pasture use contracts for herder household associations³. A Law on Climate Change was adopted on 2 July 2026²¹.