Climate & sustainability

On ERA5 data the country-average annual rainfall was 995 mm in 1991–2020, and 2022, at 783 mm, was the lowest in the ERA5 series for 1950–2025 (own calculations)¹. ERA5 decade means drift from 1,301 mm in the 1950s to 908 mm in 2020–2025 (own calculation), so comparisons with the early decades of the series are less reliable. FEWS NET refers to the February–May belg and the June–September kiremt rains, which support the meher harvest, and to the March–May gu/genna and October–December deyr/hageya seasons of the southern and southeastern pastoral areas²³⁴. In 2022 belg rainfall was 51.9% below its 1991–2020 average, and the country-average rainfall of each of the five seasons from October–December 2020 to October–December 2022 fell 14% to 51% short of its average (own calculations)⁵.

OCHA reported in March 2023 that the drought followed five consecutive failed rainy seasons in the south and east, that 24 million people lived in drought-affected areas and 11 million were food insecure, and that about 6.85 million livestock had died since late 2021⁶. In the 2015 drought, failed belg rains and an El Niño drought during the kiremt season left 10.2 million people in need of emergency food assistance in 2016⁷. The deyr/hageya rains of October–December 2023 then brought floods that affected about 1.5 million people, displaced over 616,000 and destroyed at least 215,600 ha of cropland by 6 December 2023⁸.

The country-average temperature was 23.40 °C in 1991–2020 against 22.59 °C in 1961–1990 on ERA5 data, and 2024 was the warmest year in the series for 1950–2025 at 24.33 °C (own calculations)¹. CMIP6 models project median warming of 1.30 °C by 2040–2059 under an intermediate scenario and 1.78 °C under high emissions, rising to 2.14 °C and 4.19 °C by 2080–2099, relative to 1995–2014^1191213. Median projections show more annual rainfall, by 40 mm to 159 mm depending on scenario and period¹¹¹³.

NDC 3.0 estimates cumulative climate-related losses at 29% of decadal GDP and average annual losses at 2.5–2.9%, and projects that wet conditions reduce crop productivity by 7.03% and heat stress by a further 0.75% by 2035¹⁴.

On Climate Watch data agriculture emitted 136.1 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent in 2023, 70.6% of the 192.7 million tonnes emitted excluding land use and forestry (own calculation), and land use and forestry were a net source of 7.7 million tonnes¹⁰. Enteric fermentation and manure left on pasture accounted for 123.9 million of the 136.1 million tonnes of agricultural emissions estimated by FAO for 2023, or 91.0% (own calculation)¹⁵. Forest covered 23.84% of the land area in 2024 on World Bank data¹⁶. NDC 3.0 reports a national forest cover of 23.6% in 2023 against a goal of 30% by 2030, and the government attributes rising carbon sequestration, from 34.6 MtCO2e in 2020 to nearly 50 MtCO2e in 2024, to the Green Legacy Initiative and forest management¹⁴.

The Climate Resilient Green Economy strategy of 2011 aimed to hold emissions at about 145–150 Mt CO2e, 64% below business as usual in 2030¹⁷. The updated NDC of July 2021 targeted a 68.8% reduction below business as usual by 2030, of which 14% unconditional¹⁸. The Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategy aims at net zero emissions by 2050¹⁹. NDC 3.0 of September 2025 targets a 70.3% reduction by 2035 against a revised business-as-usual level of 237.6 MtCO2e, against 40.7% in the unconditional scenario¹⁴. NDC 3.0 states that rain-fed cropland under climate-smart agriculture rose from 7.94 million ha in 2018 to over 17.9 million ha in 2025¹⁴. NAP-ETH sets 18 adaptation options and five strategic priorities for 2019–2030²⁰.