Agricultural economy & structure

Agriculture, forestry and fishing produced value added of 4,953.8 billion birr at current prices in the fiscal year 2024/25, worth US$41.5 billion on World Bank data, or 32.8% of GDP¹²³. On the same basis the share was 41.4% in 2010 and 37.6% in 2021 and 2022³. At constant 2015/16 prices the Ministry of Planning and Development puts agriculture at 31.3% of GDP in 2024/25, down from 34.9% in 2017/18⁴.

Real agricultural growth rose in each fiscal year from 3.5% in 2017/18 to 7.3% in 2024/25, when real GDP grew by 9.2% and agriculture contributed 2.3 percentage points, or 25.5% of total growth⁴. Crop production grew by 7.5% in 2024/25 and accounted for 66.8% of agricultural output, animal farming and hunting for 24.6% and forestry for 7.8%⁴. Industry grew by 13.0% and services by 7.5% in the same year⁴.

Ethiopian national accounts follow the fiscal year ending on 7 July, and the World Bank labels each fiscal year with the calendar year in which it ends, so its 2025 values refer to 2024/25⁷. The World Bank conversion factor (PA.NUS.ATLS) is also fiscal-year based. For 2015–2024 it is an alternative estimate calculated by an inflation-adjustment method, because multiple or dual exchange rates were in use, and it implied 64.2 birr per US$ for 2022/23 and 78.7 for 2023/24, against NBE fiscal-year average official rates of 53.28 and 55.96⁷¹⁴. For 2024/25 the factor is 119.46 birr per US$, close to the NBE fiscal-year average of 119.31 (own comparison).

On 29 July 2024 the National Bank of Ethiopia announced a shift to a market-based exchange regime with immediate effect⁹. The monthly average rate moved from 59.76 birr per US$ in July 2024 to 105.92 in August 2024 and 143.82 in September 2025¹⁰, and the NBE average for the fiscal year 2024/25 was 119.31⁴. The US$ series therefore breaks in 2024/25, when agricultural value added fell by 20.4% in dollar terms while it rose by 20.9% in birr (own calculations)²¹. The fall in dollar terms reflects the rise of the conversion factor from 78.7 to 119.46 birr per US$ (own calculation).

Average consumer price inflation by fiscal year fell from 33.8% in 2021/22 to 16.0% in 2024/25, and food inflation from 40.3% to 16.2%⁴.

The ESS National Integrated Household Survey of 2024/25 found that 69.4% of employed persons aged ten and above worked in agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing, and 81.7% of those in rural areas⁵. The 2021 Labour Force and Migration Survey, which excluded Tigray, had recorded 64.9%, or 27.0 million employed persons¹⁸. In 2024/25 the share was 70.7% for employed men and 67.7% for employed women⁵. The ILO's modelled estimate, a separate series, puts agriculture at 60.1% of employment in 2025, against 73.8% in 2010¹⁶. Rural residents made up 75.9% of a population of 135.5 million in 2025 on World Bank estimates¹⁷.

The official poverty headcount fell from 45.5% in 1995/96 to 23.5% in 2015/16, when it was 25.6% in rural and 14.8% in urban areas¹⁹. No official estimate from a later household survey was found. A World Bank calculation from the 2021 Household Welfare Statistics survey, which excluded Tigray and some neighbouring areas, puts the rate at the national poverty line at 33.1% in 2021²⁰, and the rate at US$3.00 a day (2021 PPP) at 45.2% in rural and 15.3% in urban areas²¹. Because the 2021 survey differs from the 2015/16 HICE survey and excluded Tigray, the 23.5% and 33.1% rates are not like for like. The National Integrated Household Survey, conducted from September 2024 to September 2025, includes a consumption module²¹.

The ESS Agricultural Sample Survey of the Meher season 2021/22 (2014 E.C.) counted 19.74 million private peasant holders and 19.40 million agricultural households operating 17.78 million hectares, an average of 0.90 hectares per holder⁶. ESS defines a holder as the person who exercises management control over the holding, and the survey excludes commercial farms, belg-season crops and dry-season irrigated crops⁶. Holders with 1 hectare or less made up 68.8% of all holders and held 28.5% of the land, while the 2.20 million holders with more than 2 hectares held 40.3% (own calculations)⁶. Temporary crops covered 71.9% of the land of these holdings, grazing land 9.9% and permanent crops 9.5% (own calculations)⁶. The survey counted 3.40 million female holders, 17.2% of the total (own calculation), with an average of 0.52 hectares against 0.98 hectares for male holders⁶.

Oromia accounted for 42.7% of holders and 51.9% of the land surveyed, and Amhara for 25.2% and 31.0% (own calculations), with average holdings of 1.09 and 1.11 hectares per holder⁶. Holdings averaged 0.51 hectares in S.N.N.P. and 0.29 hectares in Sidama⁶.

Agricultural land covered 34.3% of the land area in 2024 and arable land 14.6% on World Bank data, while forest covered 23.8%²²²³. The Constitution vests the ownership of rural and urban land exclusively in the State and the peoples of Ethiopia, rules out its sale or exchange and gives peasants the right to obtain land without payment (Article 40)²⁴. Within this framework the 2021/22 survey recorded 19.46 million holders with land classed as owned, 2.01 million with rented land and 4.72 million with land under other tenure, categories that overlap⁶.