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Malawi · Section 5 of 9

Climate & sustainability

Malawi's farming depends on rain that falls mainly from November to April1, and droughts, floods and cyclones recur. Cyclone Freddy caused US$506.7 million of damage and losses in 2023, and the El Niño drought of 2024 led to a state of disaster in 23 of 28 districts. Median projections put warming at 1.4–1.9 °C by mid-century, and agriculture produced 78.3% of emissions excluding land use in 20232.

5.1

Rainfall, droughts and cyclones

ERA5 reanalysis data give an average of 1,251 mm of rain from November to April in 1991–2020, with 936 mm in the driest season of that period, 1991/921. National totals do not capture regional dry spells. The 2023/24 season recorded 1,352 mm at national level, 8.0% above average (own calculation), although dry spells in that season led to the drought declaration of March 2024 for 23 of 28 districts13. The 2024/25 season was 9.7% below average1.

Cyclone Freddy struck the Southern Region in March 2023. The needs assessment counted 679 deaths, 2,267,458 people affected and 54,949 hectares of crops affected, with damage and losses of US$506.7 million and recovery needs of US$680.4 million4. Crops, livestock, irrigation and fisheries accounted for US$110.4 million of the effects, 21.8% (own calculation)4. Cyclone Idai and the floods of 2019 had caused effects of US$220.2 million5.

US$506.7 m
damage and losses from Cyclone Freddy (2023)4
+1.88 °C
median warming by 2040–2059 under high emissions (SSP5-8.5)6
−23.7%
change in forest area from 2010 to 2025 (own calculation)7
78.3%
of emissions excluding land use came from agriculture (2023, own calculation)2
Rainy-season rainfall
November–April total, country average, mm, 1990/91–2024/25 (ERA5)
Source: World Bank CCKP — Own calculation, sum of the ERA5 monthly country averages from November to April. The 1991–2020 seasonal average is 1,251 mm. The country average does not show regional dry spells. The 2023/24 season, when drought was declared in 23 of 28 districts, recorded 8.0% more rain than the average at national level.
Effects of Cyclone Freddy by sector
Damage and losses, US$ million, Post-Disaster Needs Assessment, April 2023
Source: GoM PDNA — Total effects were US$506.7 million, of which crops, livestock, irrigation and fisheries accounted for US$110.4 million or 21.8% (own calculation). Smaller sectors are not shown.
Cyclone Freddy (2023) and Cyclone Idai (2019), needs assessments
ItemCyclone Idai and floods, 2019Cyclone Freddy, 2023
Damage and losses (US$ million)220.2506.71
Recovery needs (US$ million)370.5680.4
Agriculture, livestock, irrigation and fisheries (US$ million)36.3110.37
Agriculture share of effects (%, own calculation)16.521.8
Deaths60679
People affectedmore than 800,0002,267,458
Source: UNECA ACPC · GoM PDNA — The 2019 figures come from a Government presentation summarising the assessment, at an early response stage. Freddy affected 54,949 ha of crops.
The 2024 El Niño drought response
ItemValue
State of disaster declared23 March 2024, 23 of 28 districts
Maize area severely affected (Government estimate)about 44%
Government response appeal, April 2024 (US$)446,739,294
of which agriculture (US$)158,609,366
Funding gap at the time of the appeal (US$)425,124,797
UN Flash Appeal, July 2024 (US$ million)136.5
Source: UN Malawi · DoDMA
5.2

Temperature and projections

The country-average temperature was 22.09 °C in 1991–2020, against 21.53 °C in 1961–1990, on ERA5 data, and 2024 was the warmest year in the series at 22.75 °C10. CMIP6 models project median warming of 1.40 °C by 2040–2059 under an intermediate scenario and 1.88 °C under high emissions, rising to 2.31 °C and 4.58 °C by 2080–2099, relative to 1995–20141161213. Median rainfall projections show declines, but the model range includes both wetter and drier outcomes14.

FAO reports 157,290 hectares equipped for irrigation in 2024, 3.67% of cropland, and the Department of Irrigation reports 156,351 hectares developed out of a potential of 407,862 hectares in 2025, 38.0% as stated715. The first phase of the Shire Valley Transformation Program closed in December 2024 with no hectares irrigated, and the second phase had not yet supplied gravity-fed water to any area in June 20261617.

Annual mean temperature
Country average, °C, 1990–2025 (ERA5)
Source: World Bank CCKP — The 1991–2020 mean was 22.09 °C, against 21.53 °C in 1961–1990 (own calculation). 2024, at 22.75 °C, was the warmest year in the series. The CRU station-based climatology, a separate series, gives 22.02 °C for 1961–1990 and 22.66 °C for 1991–20201819.
Projected warming
Median change in annual mean temperature against 1995–2014, °C, CMIP6 ensemble
Source: World Bank CCKP
Area equipped for irrigation
Thousand hectares, 1990–2024 (FAOSTAT)
Source: FAOSTAT — 157,290 ha equalled 3.67% of cropland in 2024. The Department of Irrigation reports 156,351 ha developed in 2025, 38.0% of an irrigable potential of 407,862 ha as stated15.
Projected change in temperature and rainfall (CMIP6)
Scenario and periodTemperature, median (°C)Temperature, 10th–90th percentile (°C)Annual rainfall, median (mm)
SSP2-4.5, 2040–2059+1.40+0.97 to +2.10−23.7
SSP2-4.5, 2080–2099+2.31+1.49 to +3.23−36.4
SSP5-8.5, 2040–2059+1.88+1.30 to +2.69−34.1
SSP5-8.5, 2080–2099+4.58+2.64 to +6.15−83.7
Source: World Bank CCKP — Anomalies against 1995–2014. The rainfall range runs from declines to increases in every scenario.
5.3

Emissions, forests and climate commitments

On Climate Watch data agriculture emitted 10.67 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent in 2023, up from 4.39 million in 2010, out of 13.63 million tonnes excluding land use and forestry, and land use and forestry added 8.11 million tonnes2. Enteric fermentation (4.01 million tonnes), manure left on pasture (2.06 million tonnes) and synthetic fertiliser (1.51 million tonnes) were the largest farm sources in 202327. The national inventory in the first Biennial Transparency Report of September 2025 uses other methods and reports 5,714 Gg CO2-equivalent from agriculture in 202228. Forest area fell from 2.66 million hectares in 2010 to 2.03 million hectares in 20257.

Malawi's NDC 3.0, whose final version is dated 17 June 2026, targets unconditional reductions of 8% below business as usual by 2030 and 12% by 2035, and 30% and 48% with international support, at a cost of US$7.06 billion for 2025–2035, of which 61% is conditional29. For agriculture it plans conservation agriculture on 240,000 hectares and agroforestry on 100,000 hectares by 203029. The updated NDC of July 2021 had set a combined target of 51% by 204030. Malawi had not submitted a National Adaptation Plan by October 2026 and works under a NAP Framework of March 20203132.

Where emissions come from
Greenhouse gas emissions by sector, Mt CO2-equivalent, 2010 and 2023 (Climate Watch)
Source: Climate Watch — Industrial processes added 0.42 Mt in 2023. Agriculture accounted for 78.3% of emissions excluding land use and forestry in 2023 (own calculation). The national inventory in the first Biennial Transparency Report uses other methods and gives 5.71 Mt for agriculture in 202228.
Agricultural emissions
Mt CO2-equivalent, 2010–2023 (Climate Watch)
Source: Climate Watch · FAOSTAT — The FAOSTAT series follows the same path. Enteric fermentation (4.01 Mt), manure left on pasture (2.06 Mt) and synthetic fertilisers (1.51 Mt) were the largest farm sources in 202327.
Forest area
Million hectares, 1990–2025 (FAO)
Source: FAOSTAT — FAO Forest Resources Assessment values. Forest area fell by 23.7% between 2010 and 2025 (own calculation), and the annual values after 2020 are interpolated.
Climate and disaster milestones
  1. Nov 2015
    Green Climate Fund approves FP002 for early warning (US$12.3 m)33Climate
  2. Jun 2016
    National Climate Change Management Policy34Strategy
  3. Mar 2019
    Cyclone Idai and floods, effects of US$220.2 m5Climate
  4. Nov 2019
    Environment Management Act comes into force35Law
  5. Mar 2020
    National Adaptation Plan Framework32Strategy
  6. Jul 2021
    Updated NDC, 51% reduction by 2040 with support30Climate
  7. Mar 2023
    Cyclone Freddy, effects of US$506.7 m4Climate
  8. Jun 2023
    Disaster Risk Management Act assented36Law
  9. Mar 2024
    State of disaster over the El Niño drought in 23 districts3Climate
  10. Jul 2024
    Green Climate Fund approves FP238 for watersheds (US$42.8 m)37Finance
  11. Sep 2025
    First Biennial Transparency Report28Climate
  12. Jun 2026
    NDC 3.0 final version29Climate
Malawi's climate commitments
ItemUpdated NDC (July 2021)NDC 3.0 (June 2026)
Target years20402030 and 2035, indicative 2040
CoverageEnergy, industry, waste and agriculture (forestry and land use excluded)All sectors including forestry and land use
Unconditional reduction below business as usual6% by 20408% (2030), 12% (2035), 13% (2040)
Combined with international support51% by 204030% (2030), 48% (2035), 54% (2040)
Estimated costUS$46,329 million to 2040US$7,058 million for 2025–2035
Share conditional on international financeabout 76%61%
Agriculture measuresConservation agriculture, efficient fertiliser and manure useConservation agriculture on 240,000 ha by 2030, 100,000 ha of agroforestry, 10,000 biogas digesters
Source: GoM — NDC 3.0 is cited from its final version dated 17 June 2026. Its business-as-usual levels differ between the text and Table 1, so only the percentages are shown.
Disaster risk finance instruments
InstrumentDateAmount
African Risk Capacity payout, 2015/16 droughtAnnounced Nov 2016, received 2017about US$8.1 million
World Bank DRM Development Policy Financing with Cat DDOApproved 6 Jun 2019US$70 million (US$30 million Cat DDO drawn 10 Apr 2020)
African Risk Capacity and AfDB payout28 Jun 2022US$14.2 million
World Bank Growth and Resilience DPO with Cat DDOApproved 12 Dec 2023US$80 million plus US$57 million Cat DDO
AfDB and African Risk Capacity payout, 2023/24 El Niño2 Aug 2024US$11.2 million
African Risk Capacity payouts, 2024/25 season25 Jul 2025US$3,376,783
Source: ARC · World Bank · AfDB — The 2023 Cat DDO was shown as fully disbursed in the June 2025 implementation report, which does not give the drawdown date.

Sources cited on this page

  1. ERA5 reanalysis country-average monthly precipitation and mean temperature, Malawi, 1950-2025 (API, JSON) — World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portalverified
  2. Historical GHG emissions by sector and gas, Malawi, 1990-2023 (API, JSON, data source Climate Watch) — World Resources Institute, Climate Watchverified
  3. Press release, The United Nations and Humanitarian Partners appeal for US$136.5 million to assist people affected by El Niño-induced drought in Malawi, 24 July 2024 (PDF) — United Nations Malawi, Resident Coordinator's Officeverified
  4. Malawi 2023 Tropical Cyclone Freddy Post-Disaster Needs Assessment, April 2023 (PDF on UN Malawi site) — Government of Malawi (with World Bank, GFDRR, United Nations and EU Delegation)verified
  5. Malawi 2019 Cyclone Idai, impacts and response (presentation, PDF) — Government of Malawi presentation hosted by UN Economic Commission for Africa (ACPC archive)verified
  6. CMIP6 ensemble median projected annual anomaly, SSP5-8.5, 2040-2059, Malawi (API, JSON) — World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portalverified
  7. Land use (RL domain), Africa bulk file, Malawi rows (area code 130), 1961-2025 (CSV in ZIP) — Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nationsverified
  8. National El Niño Induced Prolonged Dry Spells and Floods Response Appeal, April 2024 (PDF on UN Malawi site) — Government of Malawi, Office of the President and Cabinet, Department of Disaster Management Affairsverified
  9. Malawi Drought Flash Appeal July 2024 - April 2025, published July 2024 (PDF on UN Malawi site) — United Nations and humanitarian partners, Malawi (OCHA)verified
  10. ERA5 reanalysis country-average annual precipitation and mean temperature, Malawi, 1950-2025 (API, JSON) — World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portalverified
  11. CMIP6 ensemble median projected annual anomaly, SSP2-4.5, 2040-2059, Malawi (API, JSON) — World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portalverified
  12. CMIP6 ensemble median projected annual anomaly, SSP2-4.5, 2080-2099, Malawi (API, JSON) — World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portalverified
  13. CMIP6 ensemble median projected annual anomaly, SSP5-8.5, 2080-2099, Malawi (API, JSON) — World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portalverified
  14. CMIP6 ensemble 90th percentile anomaly, SSP5-8.5, 2080-2099, Malawi (API, JSON) — World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portalverified
  15. Annual Economic Report 2026 (PDF, Budget Document 2, March 2026) — Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Decentralization, Malawiverified
  16. Implementation Completion and Results Report ICR00462, First Phase of the Shire Valley Transformation Program (P158805), 30 June 2025 (PDF) — World Bankverified
  17. Implementation Status and Results Report No. 10, Shire Valley Transformation Program Phase 2 (P176575), archived 15 June 2026 (PDF) — World Bankverified
  18. CRU TS 4.09 annual climatology 1961-1990, Malawi (API, JSON) — World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portalverified
  19. CRU TS 4.09 annual climatology 1991-2020, Malawi (API, JSON) — World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portalverified
  20. CMIP6 ensemble 10th percentile anomaly, SSP2-4.5, 2040-2059, Malawi (API, JSON) — World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portalverified
  21. CMIP6 ensemble 90th percentile anomaly, SSP2-4.5, 2040-2059, Malawi (API, JSON) — World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portalverified
  22. CMIP6 ensemble 10th percentile anomaly, SSP2-4.5, 2080-2099, Malawi (API, JSON) — World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portalverified
  23. CMIP6 ensemble 90th percentile anomaly, SSP2-4.5, 2080-2099, Malawi (API, JSON) — World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portalverified
  24. CMIP6 ensemble 10th percentile anomaly, SSP5-8.5, 2040-2059, Malawi (API, JSON) — World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portalverified
  25. CMIP6 ensemble 90th percentile anomaly, SSP5-8.5, 2040-2059, Malawi (API, JSON) — World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portalverified
  26. CMIP6 ensemble 10th percentile anomaly, SSP5-8.5, 2080-2099, Malawi (API, JSON) — World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portalverified
  27. Emissions totals (GT domain), Africa bulk file, Malawi rows (area code 130), 1961-2023 (CSV in ZIP) — Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nationsverified
  28. Malawi's First Biennial Transparency Report and Fourth National Communication to the UNFCCC, September 2025 (PDF copy on Climate Policy Radar) — Government of Malawi, Ministry of Natural Resources and Climate Change, Environmental Affairs Departmentverified
  29. Malawi's Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), final version dated 17 June 2026 (PDF copy on Climate Policy Radar) — Government of Malawiverified
  30. Updated Nationally Determined Contributions, July 2021 (PDF copy on Climate Policy Radar) — Government of Malawiverified
  31. Submitted National Adaptation Plans from developing country Parties (web page) — UNFCCC NAP Centralverified
  32. Malawi's National Adaptation Plan Framework, March 2020 (PDF) — Government of Malawi, Ministry of Natural Resources, Energy and Mining, Environmental Affairs Departmentverified
  33. FP002 Scaling up the use of Modernized Climate information and Early Warning Systems in Malawi (project page) — Green Climate Fundverified
  34. National Climate Change Management Policy, June 2016 (PDF) — Government of Malawi, Ministry of Natural Resources, Energy and Mining (copy on FAOLEX)verified
  35. Government Notice No. 73 of 2019 – Environment Management Act notice of commencement (PDF) — Government of Malawi (Laws.Africa Commons copy)verified
  36. Disaster Risk Management Act, 2023, Act No. 27 of 2023 (PDF) — FAO FAOLEX (copy of Malawi Government text)verified
  37. FP238 Ecosystems-based Adaptation for resilient Watersheds and Communities in Malawi (EbAM) (project page) — Green Climate Fundverified
  38. Press release, Malawi to receive USD 8M insurance payout to support drought-affected families (14 November 2016) — African Risk Capacity Groupverified
  39. Impact (web page) — African Risk Capacity Groupverified
  40. Projects API, P165056 Malawi Disaster Risk Management Development Policy Financing with Cat DDO (API, JSON) — World Bankverified
  41. Implementation Completion and Results Report, Disaster Risk Management Development Policy Financing with Cat DDO (P165056), 8 June 2023 (PDF) — World Bankverified
  42. The African Risk Capacity Group and the African Development Bank make a $14.2 million drought recovery insurance payout to the Government of Malawi (news release, 28 June 2022) — African Risk Capacity Groupverified
  43. Program Document, Malawi First Growth and Resilience DPO with a Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option, 16 November 2023 (PDF) — World Bankverified
  44. Implementation Status and Results Report No. 1, P175072, 30 June 2025 (PDF) — World Bankverified
  45. AfDB Group and ARC Group issue US$11.2 million insurance payout to the Government of Malawi, originally published 19 Aug 2024 (web page) — African Development Bank (copy on ReliefWeb)verified
  46. Government of Malawi receives an insurance payout from ARC Group following the 2024 drought (news release, 25 July 2025) — African Risk Capacity Groupverified
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