Malawi: Agricultural economy & structure

2.1

Size and growth

Real value added of agriculture, forestry and fishing grew by 0.9% in 2022 and 0.5% in 2023, against GDP growth of 0.9% and 1.9%¹. The Ministry of Finance reports a fall of 0.2% in 2024, when crop production fell by 6.6% in the drought, and estimates growth of 1.3% for 2025, against 2.7% for GDP². A year earlier the Ministry had projected agricultural growth of 1.9% for 2024³. Animal production has grown faster than crops, by 9.8% in 2023 and 9.2% in 2024¹².

At current prices agriculture's share of GDP rose from 21.6% in 2018 to 28.9% in 2023, while at constant 2017 prices it stayed between 22.0% and 22.6%¹. Crop production accounted for 16.6% of GDP in 2023 and animal production for 10.8%¹. The rebasing of the national accounts from 2010 to 2017 raised the level of GDP by about 37%⁴. MIP-1, the first plan under the Malawi 2063 vision, targets an agricultural share of about 30% by 2030⁵.

In dollar terms value added has followed the exchange rate. On World Bank data it fell from US$2.79 billion in 2011 to US$1.76 billion in 2016, rose to US$3.86 billion in 2023, fell to US$3.60 billion in 2024 and reached US$4.48 billion in 2025⁶. The kwacha's annual average moved from 156.5 per US dollar in 2011 to 1,750.2 in 2025⁷⁸. The IMF Extended Credit Facility approved in November 2023 ended on 14 May 2025 without a completed review⁹¹⁰.

Real growth of agriculture and of GDP

Annual % change at constant 2017 prices, 2018–2025

Year	Agriculture, forestry & fishing (%)	GDP (%)
2018	0.3	4.4
2019	5.9	5.7
2020	3.4	0.8
2021	3.8	4.6
2022	0.9	0.9
2023	0.5	1.9
2024	-0.2	1.7
2025 (est.)	1.3	2.7

Source: NSO · MoFEPD — 2018–2023 are NSO figures. 2024 and the 2025 estimate are from the Ministry of Finance Annual Economic Report 2026. The 2024 report had projected agricultural growth of 1.9% for 2024³. Crop production fell by 6.6% in 2024, the drought year, while animal production grew by 9.2%².

Value added of agriculture, forestry and fishing

MWK billion at current prices and at constant 2017 prices, 2017–2023 (NSO)

Year	Current prices (MWK bn)	Constant 2017 prices (MWK bn)
2017	1,497.4	1,497.4
2018	1,565.1	1,501.8
2019	1,890.8	1,590.4
2020	2,206.7	1,644.2
2021	2,547	1,705.9
2022	3,255.3	1,721.9
2023	4,479.5	1,731.3

Source: NSO — Current-price value added tripled between 2017 and 2023 while real value added rose by 15.6% (own calculation). No NSO current-price figure for 2024 or 2025 had been published by October 2026.

Agricultural value added in US dollars

Agriculture, forestry and fishing, current US$ billion, 2010–2025 (World Bank)

Year	Value added (US$ bn)
2010	2.5
2011	2.79
2012	2.06
2013	1.92
2014	2.1
2015	2.12
2016	1.76
2017	2.05
2018	2.14
2019	2.54
2020	2.94
2021	3.16
2022	3.43
2023	3.86
2024	3.6
2025	4.48

Source: World Bank WDI · IMF — The falls in 2012, 2016 and 2024 coincide with the kwacha's depreciation. The annual average rate moved from 156.5 per US dollar in 2011 to 249.1 in 2012, and from 1,161.1 in 2023 to 1,738.3 in 2024 (IMF to 2023, Reserve Bank of Malawi for 2024).

Agriculture's share of GDP, World Bank series

Agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, % of GDP at current prices, 2010–2025 (World Bank)

Year	Share of GDP (%)
2010	24.6
2011	23.9
2012	23.5
2013	23.8
2014	23.9
2015	23
2016	22.2
2017	22.9
2018	21.6
2019	22.9
2020	25
2021	25.5
2022	27.6
2023	28.9
2024	31.8
2025	30

Source: World Bank WDI — The World Bank series matches the NSO current-price shares for 2017–2023. Values for 2024 and 2025 are World Bank figures for which no NSO current-price release was found, and values before 2017 are on the World Bank's backcast of the 2017 base.

Headline indicators, 2017–2025

Indicator	2017	2020	2023	2024	2025
GDP, current prices (MWK billion, NSO)	6,531.2	8,821.4	15,516.5	19,668.1	24,760 (preliminary)
GDP (US$ billion, World Bank)	8.94	11.77	13.36	11.31	14.92
Real GDP growth (%)	4.0	0.8	1.9	1.7	2.7 (estimate)
Agriculture, forestry & fishing value added (MWK billion, current prices)	1,497.4	2,206.7	4,479.5	–	–
Agricultural value added (US$ billion, World Bank)	2.05	2.94	3.86	3.60	4.48
Agriculture, share of GDP at current prices (%)	22.9	25.0	28.9	31.8 (World Bank)	30.0 (World Bank)
Agriculture, share of GDP at constant 2017 prices (%)	22.9	22.6	22.2	21.8	21.5 (estimate)
Real growth of agriculture (%)	5.2	3.4	0.5	−0.2	1.3 (estimate)
Population (million, World Bank)	18.04	19.53	21.10	21.66	22.22
Rural population (% of total, World Bank)	84.0	83.7	83.0	82.7	82.4
CPI inflation, annual average (%)	11.5	8.6	28.8	32.2	28.4
Kwacha per US$, annual average	730.27	749.53	1,161.09	1,738.34	1,750.21
Agri-food exports, HS 01–24 (US$ million)	760.5	714.8	865.4	864.2	855.1
Agri-food imports, HS 01–24 (US$ million)	318.8	385.5	279.9	390.1	457.3

Source: NSO · MoFEPD · World Bank WDI · IMF · RBM · UN Comtrade — National accounts on the 2017 base. GDP for 2024 is the NSO expenditure-approach estimate, and 2025 values are preliminary or estimates. Agricultural growth for 2017 is the World Bank figure. Inflation for 2017 and 2020 is the World Bank series, and for 2023–2025 the NSO annual averages. Kwacha rates are IMF averages to 2023 and Reserve Bank of Malawi averages for 2024 and 2025.

Composition of agricultural value added, 2023

Activity	Share of GDP at current prices (%)
Crop production	16.589
Animal production	10.808
Fishing	1.377
Forestry	0.096
Agriculture, forestry and fishing	28.869

Source: NSO — NSO GDP Summary Tables, February 2025.

2.2

Employment, households and poverty

Household surveys show farming in almost every rural household. In 2024/25, 85.7% of households engaged in agriculture, against 84.7% in 2019/20, and 54.3% of urban households did so²⁰²¹. Employment statistics depend on the definition. The Labour Force Survey of 2013 counted 64.1% of the employed in agriculture, and the survey of 2024, which follows the 19th ICLS standard, counted 39.3%²²²³. Informal employment made up 97.6% of agricultural employment in 2024²⁴.

The poverty headcount fell from 50.7% in 2019/20 to 47.3% in 2024/25, and from 56.6% to 52.6% in rural areas²⁵²⁶. Ultra-poverty rose from 20.5% to 24.0% over the same period, and the NSO explains part of the rise by the food poverty line forming a larger share of the total poverty line, 68.5% in IHS6 against 61.1% in IHS5²⁶. Poverty was 55.8% in the Southern Region in 2024/25²⁶.

Employment in agriculture in three surveys

Agriculture, forestry and fishing, % of employed persons aged 15–64

Survey	Share of employed (%)
Labour Force Survey 2013	64.1
Population Census 2018	72.8
Labour Force Survey 2024	39.3

Source: NSO — The three figures use different definitions and are not a time series. The 2024 survey applies the 19th ICLS standard and excludes people who grew food only for their own consumption and worked under 48 hours. The census figure is an own calculation from Table D8 (3,921,887 of 5,389,463 employed persons).

Poverty and ultra-poverty

% of persons below the national poverty lines, IHS4 2016/17, IHS5 2019/20 and IHS6 2024/25

Indicator	IHS4 2016/17 (%)	IHS5 2019/20 (%)	IHS6 2024/25 (%)
Poverty, national	51.5	50.7	47.3
Poverty, rural	59.5	56.6	52.6
Poverty, urban	17.7	19.2	20.9
Ultra-poverty, national	20.1	20.5	24
Ultra-poverty, rural	23.8	23.6	27.3

Source: NSO — Cost of basic needs method. The food poverty line was 68.5% of the total poverty line in IHS6 against 61.1% in IHS5, which the NSO says helps explain why ultra-poverty rose while the poverty headcount fell.

Households engaged in agriculture

% of households, Integrated Household Surveys 2019/20 and 2024/25

Area	IHS5 2019/20 (%)	IHS6 2024/25 (%)
Malawi	84.7	85.7
Rural	92.8	92.1
Urban	43.7	54.3

Source: NSO — Households in which a member engaged in agricultural activity during the survey's reference season.

Employment in agriculture, Labour Force Surveys 2013 and 2024

Indicator	LFS 2013	LFS 2024
Agriculture, forestry and fishing, % of employed	64.1	39.3
Men (%)	58.5	37.7
Women (%)	69.9	41.2
Urban (%)	16.4	8.9
Rural (%)	70.4	49.2
Informal employment in agriculture (%)	–	97.6
Unemployment rate, broad (%)	–	19.7

Source: NSO — The 2013 survey counted own-use food production as employment. The 2024 survey follows the 19th ICLS standard and excludes people who grew food only for their own consumption and worked under 48 hours, so the two shares are not comparable.

Poverty and inequality, IHS5 and IHS6

Indicator	IHS5 2019/20	IHS6 2024/25
Poverty headcount, national (%)	50.7	47.3
Rural (%)	56.6	52.6
Urban (%)	19.2	20.9
Ultra-poverty, national (%)	20.5	24.0
Poverty gap (%)	17.0	15.7
Gini coefficient	37.9	39.9
Households engaged in agriculture (%)	84.7	85.7

Source: NSO — The IHS6 poverty line is MWK 1,562.6 per person per day and the food line MWK 1,071.1. Regional poverty in 2024/25 was 55.8% in the South, 41.0% in the North and 40.4% in the Centre.

2.3

Farm structure and land

The National Census of Agriculture of 2025, which covers the 2023/24 season, found an average smallholding of 0.9 hectares, 0.7 hectares in the Southern Region²⁸. Of agricultural households, 40.0% farmed for subsistence only, 46.1% mainly for subsistence with some sales and 13.9% mainly or primarily for the market (own calculation for the last group)²⁸. Customary tenure covered 71.8% of smallholder land, and 81.9% of households reported unregistered parcels²⁸. Irrigation covered 2.2% of smallholder land, 69,469 hectares²⁸. The National Agriculture Policy of 2024 states that smallholders produce about 75% of national crop output²⁹.

Agricultural land covered 61,322 km² in 2024, 65.0% of the land area, of which 4.0 million hectares were arable, while forest fell from 28.2% of land in 2010 to 22.0% in 2024³⁰. The land laws of 2016, revised in 2022, provide for customary estates and their registration³¹³².

Most households farm

Households engaged in agriculture, Integrated Household Survey 2024/25

85.7%

14.3%

Agricultural households · 85.7 %Other households · 14.3 %

Source: NSO — The share was 84.7% in 2019/20²¹.

Smallholder holdings by size

% of holdings by size class, National Census of Agriculture 2025 (2023/24 season)

	Share of holdings (%)
0.200–0.499 ha	37.7
0.500–0.999 ha	29.6
1.000–2 ha+	23.7
3+ ha	9

Source: NSO — Size classes as printed in Table 3.10 of the census report. The average holding was 0.9 ha, self-reported.

Smallholder land by tenure

% of land, National Census of Agriculture 2025

	Share of land (%)
Customary	71.8
Freehold	20.9
Leasehold	4.7
Other	2.6

Source: NSO — The residual category is an own calculation (100 minus the three published shares). 81.9% of agricultural households reported unregistered parcels.

Farming for the table or for the market

% of agricultural households by production orientation, National Census of Agriculture 2025

	Households (%)
Subsistence only	40
Mainly subsistence, some sales	46.1
Mainly commercial, some own consumption	12.3
Primarily commercial	1.6

Source: NSO

Agricultural, arable and forest land

% of land area, 2010–2024 (World Bank, FAO data)

Year	Agricultural land (%)	Arable land (%)	Forest (%)
2010	58.1	37.1	28.2
2011	58.1	37.1	27.8
2012	58.1	37.1	27.3
2013	59.2	37.6	26.9
2014	59.8	38.2	26.4
2015	60.4	38.8	26
2016	61.7	39.4	25.6
2017	62.3	40	25.1
2018	62.9	40.5	24.7
2019	63.5	41.1	24.2
2020	64.3	41.7	23.8
2021	65	42.4	23.3
2022	65	42.4	22.9
2023	65	42.4	22.4
2024	65	42.4	22

Source: World Bank WDI — FAO estimates republished by the World Bank. Agricultural land covered 61,322 km² in 2024, and arable land 4.0 million hectares.

Smallholder agriculture, National Census of Agriculture 2025

Indicator	Value
Average holding size (ha, self-reported)	0.9
Land under customary tenure (% of land)	71.8
Freehold (% of land)	20.9
Leasehold (% of land)	4.7
Agricultural households with unregistered parcels (%)	81.9
Irrigated smallholder land (ha)	69,469
Irrigated smallholder land (% of 3,543,752 ha)	2.2
Households benefiting from the Affordable Inputs Programme (%)	26.2

Source: NSO — Reference season 2023/24. The previous census, NACAL 2006/07, counted 2,665,565 holders with an average holding of about one hectare³⁴.

Agriculture targets of MIP-1 (2021–2030)

Indicator	Baseline	Target 2030
Agriculture, forestry and fishing, share of GDP (%)	22.8 (2020)	about 30
Agricultural value addition (MWK billion)	about 403 (2019)	about 680
Area under commercial agriculture (%)	16 (2020)	at least 40

Source: NPC — Targets, not achievements. On the current NSO series agriculture's share at constant prices was 22.2% in 2023¹.

2.4

Prices and the kwacha

Annual inflation averaged 32.2% in 2024 and 28.4% in 2025, with food inflation of 40.2% and 33.2%¹⁸. Headline inflation rose from 26.93% in October 2023 to 33.13% in November 2023, the month of the exchange-rate change³⁵. It fell to 20.01% in August 2026, with food inflation of 13.41% and non-food inflation of 31.78%¹⁸³⁶.

Inflation, all items and food

Consumer prices, annual average change, %, 2022–2025 (NSO, December 2021 = 100)

Year	All items (%)	Food (%)	Non-food (%)
2022	21	26.7	15.1
2023	28.8	37.1	18.8
2024	32.2	40.2	21.2
2025	28.4	33.2	20.7

Source: NSO · World Bank WDI — Food has a weight of 53.73% in the basket. The World Bank series, based on the same NSO index, gives annual average inflation of 7.4% in 2010, 21.9% in 2015 and 8.6% in 2020¹⁷.

Monthly inflation since 2023

Consumer prices, % change on a year earlier, January 2023 – August 2026

Month	All items (%)	Food (%)
Jan 23	25.9	30.5
Feb 23	26.7	31.7
Mar 23	27	32.4
Apr 23	28.8	37.9
May 23	29.2	38.8
Jun 23	27.3	37.2
Jul 23	28.4	39.3
Aug 23	28.6	39.4
Sep 23	27.8	36.8
Oct 23	26.9	34.5
Nov 23	33.1	41.7
Dec 23	34.5	43.5
Jan 24	35	44.9
Feb 24	33.5	42
Mar 24	31.8	38.8
Apr 24	32.3	39.9
May 24	32.7	40.7
Jun 24	33.3	41.5
Jul 24	33.7	42
Aug 24	33.9	42
Sep 24	34.3	43.5
Oct 24	32.4	40.3
Nov 24	27	33.7
Dec 24	28.1	35.7
Jan 25	28.5	36
Feb 25	30.7	38.5
Mar 25	30.5	37.7
Apr 25	29.2	35.8
May 25	27.7	32.7
Jun 25	27.1	31.6
Jul 25	27.3	32.5
Aug 25	28.2	33.7
Sep 25	28.7	33
Oct 25	29.1	32.4
Nov 25	27.9	30.1
Dec 25	26	26.5
Jan 26	24.9	22.1
Feb 26	24.1	20.8
Mar 26	23.8	20
Apr 26	24.3	19.1
May 26	23.4	17.6
Jun 26	21.1	14.7
Jul 26	20.8	14.3
Aug 26	20	13.4

Source: NSO — Headline inflation rose from 26.93% in October 2023 to 33.13% in November 2023, the month of the exchange-rate change. Since January 2026 food inflation has been below non-food inflation, which was 31.78% in August 2026.

The kwacha against the US dollar

Annual average of the official rate, MWK per US$, 2010–2025

Year	MWK per US$ (MWK per US$)
2010	150.5
2011	156.5
2012	249.1
2013	364.4
2014	424.9
2015	499.6
2016	718
2017	730.3
2018	732.3
2019	745.5
2020	749.5
2021	805.9
2022	949
2023	1,161.1
2024	1,738.3
2025	1,750.2

Source: IMF · RBM — IMF annual averages for 2010–2023 and the Reserve Bank of Malawi's annual averages of the market rate it compiles for 2024 and 2025, as the IMF had not published those years. The Reserve Bank devalued the kwacha by 25% on 27 May 2022, and on 8 November 2023 it changed the operation of the foreign exchange market, after which the official rate moved from about 1,180 to 1,700 per dollar³⁷³⁸³⁹.

Sources cited on this page

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