Ukubwa na ukuaji
Thamani halisi iliyoongezwa ya kilimo, misitu na uvuvi Tanzania Bara ilikua kwa asilimia 5.1 mwaka 2024 na asilimia 5.5 mwaka 2025, huku Pato la Taifa likikua kwa asilimia 5.6 na asilimia 5.9 mtawalia1. Katika kipindi cha 2017–2025 ukuaji wa kilimo ulibaki kati ya asilimia 3.7 na asilimia 6.6 kwa mwaka1. Mifugo ilikua kati ya asilimia 4.6 na asilimia 5.5 kwa mwaka, na uvuvi ulibadilika kati ya asilimia −7.0 na asilimia 18.71. Katika robo ya kwanza ya mwaka 2026 kilimo kilikua kwa asilimia 4.6 na Pato la Taifa kwa asilimia 6.02.
Kwa bei za sasa, sehemu ya kilimo katika Pato la Taifa la Tanzania Bara ilipungua kutoka asilimia 26.0 mwaka 2016 hadi asilimia 24.3 mwaka 20251. Sehemu ya kiwango hiki inatokana na namna ya upimaji. Mabadiliko ya mwaka wa kizio kuwa 2019 yaliongeza Pato la Taifa la mwaka 2019 kwa asilimia 3.4 na kupunguza thamani iliyoongezwa ya kilimo kwa asilimia 5.3, hivyo sehemu ya kilimo kwa mwaka huo ilishuka kutoka asilimia 27.1 hadi asilimia 24.83. Kati ya thamani iliyoongezwa ya kilimo ya shilingi trilioni 56.8 katika mwaka 2025, mazao yalichangia shilingi trilioni 29.8, mifugo shilingi trilioni 15.7, misitu shilingi trilioni 6.2 na uvuvi shilingi trilioni 5.11. Sehemu hii hubadilika kulingana na msimu, kuanzia asilimia 20.0 ya Pato la Taifa la robo mwaka katika robo ya nne ya mwaka 2025 hadi asilimia 30.1 katika robo ya tatu ya mwaka 2025, kipindi ambacho mazao huvunwa4.
Kwa dola za Marekani, takwimu za Benki ya Dunia zinaonesha thamani iliyoongezwa ya kilimo ikiongezeka kutoka dola za Marekani bilioni 8.19 mwaka 2010 hadi dola bilioni 20.65 mwaka 2025, huku wastani wa mwaka wa kiwango cha ubadilishaji wa shilingi ukibadilika kutoka shilingi 1,395.63 hadi shilingi 2,537.6 kwa dola moja ya Marekani567.
Kilimo kina uzito mdogo zaidi katika uchumi wa Zanzibar kuliko Tanzania Bara. Kwa mujibu wa takwimu zilizooanishwa, kilimo kilichangia asilimia 20.6 ya Pato la Zanzibar mwaka 2025, ikilinganishwa na asilimia 24.3 ya Pato la Taifa la Tanzania Bara, na kilikua kwa asilimia 5.6 baada ya kupungua kwa asilimia 6.6 mwaka 202181. Ripoti ya OCGS yenyewe, inayotumia mwaka wa kizio 2015, inaonesha sehemu ya kilimo ya asilimia 23.5 kwa mwaka 20259.
| Kiashiria | 2016 | 2020 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pato la Taifa, Tanzania Bara, bei za sasa (TSh trilioni) | 103.75 | 149.84 | 193.36 | 211.97 | 234.10 |
| Pato la Taifa, Jamhuri ya Muungano (US$ bilioni, Benki ya Dunia) | 49.77 | 66.07 | 79.03 | 79.24 | 90.14 |
| Ukuaji halisi wa Pato la Taifa, Tanzania Bara (%) | – | 3.6 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.9 |
| Thamani iliyoongezwa ya kilimo, misitu na uvuvi, Tanzania Bara (TSh trilioni) | 27.01 | 37.72 | 48.55 | 52.87 | 56.83 |
| Thamani iliyoongezwa ya kilimo, Jamhuri ya Muungano (US$ bilioni, Benki ya Dunia) | 13.66 | 16.69 | 18.72 | 18.48 | 20.65 |
| Kilimo, sehemu ya Pato la Taifa la Tanzania Bara kwa bei za sasa (%) | 26.0 | 25.2 | 25.1 | 24.9 | 24.3 |
| Ukuaji halisi wa kilimo, Tanzania Bara (%) | – | 5.2 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 5.5 |
| Idadi ya watu (milioni, Benki ya Dunia) | 53.82 | 60.97 | 66.62 | 68.56 | 70.55 |
| Watu wa vijijini (% ya jumla, Benki ya Dunia) | 68.2 | 66.1 | 64.5 | 63.8 | 63.1 |
| Mfumuko wa bei (CPI), wastani wa mwaka, Tanzania Bara (%) | 5.2 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| Shilingi kwa US$, wastani wa mwaka | 2,177.1 | 2,294.1 | 2,383.0 | 2,597.9 | 2,537.6 |
| Mauzo nje ya bidhaa za kilimo na chakula, HS 01–24 (US$ milioni) | 1,794.8 | 1,707.9 | 2,437.7 | 3,228.5 | 3,155.7 |
| Uagizaji wa bidhaa za kilimo na chakula, HS 01–24 (US$ milioni) | 863.3 | 695.9 | 1,406.1 | 1,495.6 | 1,370.6 |
| Shughuli | Mwaka wa kizio 2015 (TSh milioni) | Mwaka wa kizio 2019 (TSh milioni) | Mabadiliko (%) | Sehemu ya Pato la Taifa, kizio 2015 (%) | Sehemu ya Pato la Taifa, kizio 2019 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilimo, misitu na uvuvi | 36,447,871 | 34,531,749 | −5.3 | 27.1 | 24.8 |
| Mazao | 20,066,646 | 18,498,565 | −7.8 | 14.9 | 13.3 |
| Mifugo | 10,357,287 | 9,457,254 | −8.7 | 7.7 | 6.8 |
| Misitu | 3,641,955 | 3,984,921 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| Uvuvi | 2,381,982 | 2,591,008 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Pato la Taifa kwa bei za soko | 134,540,194 | 139,135,212 | 3.4 | 100 | 100 |
Ajira, kaya na umaskini
Tafiti za nguvu kazi hupima sehemu ya kilimo katika ajira kwa kutumia fasili tofauti. Utafiti wa mwaka 2020/21, uliohesabu uzalishaji wa bidhaa za msingi kwa matumizi ya kaya yenyewe kuwa ajira, ulibaini kuwa asilimia 64.9 ya watu walioajiriwa walikuwa katika kilimo, wakati tafiti za mwaka 2024 na 2025, zinazofuata viwango vya Mkutano wa 19 wa Kimataifa wa Wanatakwimu wa Kazi (ICLS), zilibaini asilimia 54.2 na asilimia 54.4 mtawalia262728. Kwa Zanzibar, sehemu hiyo ilikuwa asilimia 28.4 mwaka 202528. Makadirio ya kimodeli ya Shirika la Kazi Duniani (ILO) yalikuwa asilimia 64.6 mwaka 202529. Sensa ya Watu na Makazi ya Mwaka 2022 ilihesabu watu milioni 61.74, ambapo asilimia 65.1 waliishi vijijini, na asilimia 43.2 ya watu walioajiriwa walikuwa katika kazi za kilimo na uvuvi22. Kwa mujibu wa takwimu za Benki ya Dunia, asilimia 33.7 ya wakazi wa vijijini walipata huduma ya umeme mwaka 202430.
Utafiti wa Bajeti ya Kaya wa mwaka 2017/18 ulikadiria umaskini wa mahitaji ya msingi Tanzania Bara kuwa asilimia 26.4, ikilinganishwa na asilimia 28.2 mwaka 2011/12 na asilimia 34.4 mwaka 2007, ukiwa asilimia 31.3 vijijini na asilimia 8.0 Dar es Salaam31. Umaskini wa chakula ulikuwa asilimia 9.7 vijijini31. Zanzibar, umaskini wa mahitaji ya msingi ulipungua kutoka asilimia 30.4 mwaka 2014/15 hadi asilimia 25.7 mwaka 2019/2032. Matokeo ya utafiti wa mwaka 2024/25 yalikuwa hayajachapishwa hadi Oktoba 202633.
| Utafiti | Jamhuri ya Muungano (%) | Tanzania Bara (%) | Zanzibar (%) | Fasili |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILFS 2020/21, ripoti ya uchambuzi | 64.9 | 65.6 | 35.5 | Fasili ya kitaifa, inayohesabu uzalishaji wa bidhaa za msingi kwa matumizi ya kaya yenyewe |
| ILFS 2020/21 kama ilivyowasilishwa upya katika ripoti ya ILFS 2024 | 60.4 | – | – | Kama ilivyooneshwa katika ILFS 2024, Kielelezo 2.2 |
| ILFS 2024 | 54.2 | 54.9 | 29.3 | Viwango vya ICLS ya 19 na ya 20 |
| ILFS 2025 | 54.4 | 55.1 | 28.4 | Viwango vya ICLS ya 19 na ya 20 |
| Kiashiria | Jamhuri ya Muungano | Tanzania Bara | Zanzibar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jumla ya watu | 61,741,120 | 59,851,347 | 1,889,773 |
| Watu wa vijijini | 40,201,425 | 39,237,927 | 963,498 |
| Sehemu ya vijijini (%) | 65.1 | 65.6 | 51.0 |
| Kaya binafsi | 14,152,803 | 13,776,975 | 375,828 |
| Ukuaji kati ya sensa 2012–2022 (% kwa mwaka) | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.7 |
| Walioajiriwa katika kazi za kilimo na uvuvi (%) | 43.2 | 43.8 | 24.2 |
| Kiashiria | Vijijini 2014/15 | Mijini 2014/15 | Jumla 2014/15 | Vijijini 2019/20 | Mijini 2019/20 | Jumla 2019/20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chini ya mstari wa umaskini wa mahitaji ya msingi (%) | 40.2 | 17.9 | 30.4 | 33.7 | 15.5 | 25.7 |
| Chini ya mstari wa umaskini wa chakula (%) | 15.7 | 4.5 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 4.9 | 9.3 |
Muundo wa mashamba, pembejeo na ardhi
Sensa ya Kilimo ya Mwaka 2019/20 (National Sample Census of Agriculture) ilihesabu kaya za kilimo 7,837,405 katika Jamhuri ya Muungano, ikilinganishwa na kaya 5,838,523 mwaka 2007/0837. Kati ya kaya hizo, milioni 5.09 zililima mazao pekee na milioni 2.59 zilijishughulisha na mazao na mifugo kwa pamoja37. Ukubwa wa mashamba unatofautiana kwa kiasi kikubwa. Kaya milioni 1.33 zilimiliki hekta 1 au chini ya hapo na kaya milioni 2.57 zilimiliki zaidi ya hekta 5 (ukokotoaji wetu kutokana na madaraja ya sensa), na Ripoti Kuu inaonesha wastani wa hekta 2.7 za ardhi zinazopatikana kwa kila kaya ya mkulima mdogo, ambapo hekta 2.3 zilitumika38.
Matumizi ya pembejeo ni madogo. Mbegu bora zilitumika katika asilimia 20.0 na mbolea katika asilimia 20.1 ya hekta milioni 13.75 zilizolimwa mwaka 2019/20, na asilimia 60.6 ya eneo lililowekwa mbolea lilitumia mbolea ya asili kwa mujibu wa Ripoti ya Matokeo Muhimu, wakati Ripoti Kuu inaonesha asilimia 39.6 kwa mbolea ya asili na asilimia 60.4 kwa mbolea ya viwandani3738. Kaya zilimwagilia hekta 289,386, na asilimia 7.0 ya kaya zinazolima mazao zilipata ushauri wa huduma za ugani37. Sensa ilihesabu ng'ombe milioni 33.9, mbuzi milioni 24.6 na kondoo milioni 8.5 tarehe 1 Agosti 202037.
Ardhi ya kilimo ilikuwa hekta milioni 39.9 mwaka 2024, sawa na asilimia 45.1 ya eneo la nchi kavu, ambapo hekta milioni 13.7 zilikuwa ardhi inayofaa kwa kilimo cha mazao39. Sheria ya Ardhi na Sheria ya Ardhi ya Vijiji za mwaka 1999 zinagawa ardhi katika makundi ya ardhi ya jumla, ardhi ya hifadhi na ardhi ya kijiji, na ardhi ya kijiji humilikiwa kwa hakimiliki za kimila4041.
| Shughuli | 2002/03 | 2007/08 | 2019/20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mazao pekee | 3,156,060 | 3,508,581 | 5,088,135 |
| Mazao na mifugo | 1,702,750 | 2,268,255 | 2,589,156 |
| Mifugo pekee | 41,199 | 57,770 | 157,290 |
| Ufugaji wa samaki pekee | – | – | 1,358 |
| Wafugaji wa kuhamahama | 1,828 | 3,917 | 1,465 |
| Jumla | 4,901,837 | 5,838,523 | 7,837,405 |
| Kiashiria | Jamhuri ya Muungano | Tanzania Bara | Zanzibar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eneo linalolimwa (ha) | 13,750,597 | 13,565,319 | 185,278 |
| Eneo lililopandwa mbegu bora (ha) | 2,751,386 | 2,717,036 | 34,350 |
| Eneo lililotumia mbolea ya aina yoyote (ha) | 2,762,729 | 2,722,709 | 40,020 |
| ambapo mbolea za viwandani (ha) | 1,089,517 | 1,067,398 | 22,119 |
| Kaya zinazotumia umwagiliaji | 411,108 | 363,243 | 47,865 |
| Eneo linalomwagiliwa na kaya (ha) | 289,386 | 272,897 | 16,489 |
| Kaya za wakulima wa mazao zilizopata ushauri wa ugani (%) | 7.0 | 6.9 | 10.1 |
Vyanzo vilivyorejelewa katika ukurasa huu
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Kwa maelezo zaidi na maoni, tafadhali wasiliana na serkan.veziroglu@prosperaimpact.com.